Why Trump Wouldn't Be Imprisoned If He Wins Election

Former President Trump might be sentenced to a prison term. He also might win another presidential term. He almost certainly won’t have to serve both at the same time, Politico reports. The scenario would set up an unprecedented collision of constitutional interests: on one side, New York’s interest in enforcing its laws and requiring its convicted felons to serve their sentences; on the other side, the nation’s interest in the president's being able to fulfill his duties as the chief executive. The national interest in having an unencumbered president would almost certainly prevail, legal experts say. “I can’t imagine any way New York would be allowed to jail him if he is elected,” said Randall Eliason, a former federal prosecutor. If New York courts tried to do so, federal courts would likely intervene and rule that the sentence would have to be suspended for the duration of the presidency.

That would set up the prospect of Trump's leaving the White House in 2029 and reporting to prison. “It’s a morass,” said Stan Brand, former counsel to the House of Representatives. “There is a federalism question that’s never really been addressed.” The prospect of the courts, and the country, having to address it is plausible after Trump’s conviction on 34 felonies. Justice Juan Merchan is scheduled to sentence the former president on July 11. The judge has the discretion to choose prison time, some form of supervised release, or a lighter penalty like fines or community service. A prison sentence would present many practical problems if Trump were to win the election. Basic responsibilities like running Cabinet meetings, receiving intelligence briefings, meeting with world leaders are not possible from a cell on Rikers Island. Even a lighter sentence could interfere with presidential duties. People on probation, for instance, often have strict limits on their ability to travel. Trump will appeal the conviction and sentence, and he may not be ordered to serve the sentence until the appeal is complete. That process could take years. He could be well into a presidential term before the sentence is finalized and New York seeks to enforce it. “We’re in completely unprecedented territory,” said Eliason, a lecturer at the George Washington University Law School.