If the early days of the Trump-Harris presidential campaign are any indication, the public can expect a few months of misleading, confusing charges and counter-charges about crime rates leading up to November's election.
"Homicides Are Skyrocketing in American Cities Under Kamala Harris," Donald Trump's campaign charged this week. Like Trump's assertion that "our crime rate is going up," this claim is completely at odds with reality, reports Reason.
FBI data say homicide totals jumped by more than 27 percent in 2020, when Trump was president; rose slightly in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration; and fell by 7 percent in 2022. Preliminary FBI numbers show bigger drops in 2023 (about 13 percent) and this year (26 percent for the first quarter).
It not true, that "homicides are skyrocketing in American cities under Kamala Harris." The Trump campaign took issue with "a ridiculous story" in Axios "claiming that violent crime is falling under Kamala Harris," which it describes as "a lie."
Axios reported that the recent drop in crime totals is evidence that the COVID-era crime wave continues to recede, though not entirely in some areas.
A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found a 13% decline in homicides among 66 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2020.
Boston experienced an 80% drop in homicides compared to the same period, while Philadelphia saw a 70% decrease. Baltimore saw a 45% fall in homicides, while Miami experienced a 29% drop.
Still, some notable cities have seen surges in the number of homicides during the same period. Portland, Ore., experienced a 278% surge in homicides. In Seattle, homicides ballooned 59%. In Las Vegas, homicides grew by 55%.
The Kamala Harris campaign jumped on the news and asserted that Biden administration policies were helping reduce crime.
In an email to media and supporters, the Trump campaign said violent crime is still up from the first half of 2019, and that charge sparked a conservative social media campaign to discredit the latest drop.
The Trump campaign said, "It may be true that in some cities, some categories of violent crime are lower for the first 6 months of 2024 than in 2023—but violent crime is still WAY UP compared to 2019 under President Trump. Axios can cherrypick all the crime data they like, but it won't change what Americans know: our communities are more dangerous under Kamala Harris."
Reason concludes that, "Given that crime control is mainly a state and local function, it would be unrealistic to assume that any president has much influence on the murder rate. Trump nevertheless wants us to believe that Harris, who as vice president had even less control over such things, is responsible for crime trends since January 2021. If so, Harris can claim credit for the recent dramatic reductions in homicide—a conclusion that Trump avoids only by pretending that they did not happen."
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