For much of the past year or so, executives at big retailers did something unusual: talking a lot about theft in their stores. Walmart's CEO warned it could lead to store closures and higher prices. Target's CEO said it was costing the chain upward of a billion dollars. Home Depot's finance chief called it a "consistent pressure" that the chain is "tackling every day," NPR reports. With a backdrop of viral videos showing brazen and violent thieves, crime became a common theme on retailers' typically dry quarterly earnings calls. Executives often mentioned "shrink" — inventory missing for one reason or another — as a factor behind declining profits. The list grew long: Macy's, Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, T.J.Maxx, Dollar General. Fast-forward to this year, and the fever pitch seems to be fading. So far this earnings season: Walgreens said the problem remains — and is really bad in some places. Foot Locker described changes in shrink as "relatively neutral." T.J.Maxx's parent company found it better than expected. Target cited "really solid progress."
Many didn't mention shrink at all. Two retailers hurt by theft in the past — Ulta and Dick's Sporting Goods — will address investors on Thursday. What has changed? Retailers cite a few things: Federal and state lawmakers have drafted new crime bills, and some have become law. Many stores have scaled back self-checkout options and locked away more products behind glass doors; their security investments are starting to bear fruit. One thing remains the same: Crime data have yet to indicate a nationwide epidemic of theft, leaving us only to guess at the true scale of the problem. Most retailers say their top worry is "organized retail crime" — coordinated operations in which people tend to steal and offload in bulk, often through online stores. Security experts argue that criminal rings proliferated as the COVID-19 pandemic ebbed, in part thanks to understaffed stores and soaring online demand.
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