Philadelphia last year experienced its largest annual decline in homicides in at least a half-century — a stunning reversal after three years of record-setting violence that devastated families and left thousands of men, women, and children struck by bullets.
Some 268 people were slain in the city last year — a 35% reduction compared with the year before, when more than 400 people were killed.
Just as remarkable, the decline came just three years after the city recorded 562 annual homicides — its highest-ever level of violence, reports the Philadelphia Inquirer. The homicide tally in 2024 was the fourth-lowest since 1970.
Police recorded fewer than 1,090 shootings last year, the lowest level in a decade, and on pace to rival the lowest rates since at least 2007.
The reasons for the decline are difficult to pinpoint, as was the case when violence surged in 2020. A variety of potential factors include a continued return to normal life post-pandemic, an increase in arrests of perpetrators of violent crimes, and the expansion of grassroots community programs.
Murders nationally are poised to drop by unprecedented levels for the third year in a row. Killings in 2024 declined by about 40% in New Orleans, 30% in Washington, D.C., and 28% in Baltimore, according to AH Datalytics.
Some believe that Philadelphia's unrelenting pandemic-era violence — which left more than 1,500 people dead in three years — may have played a role in last year’s drop-off. Many feuds between gang leaders have burned out as potential shooters have been either arrested or killed.
John Roman, who runs a public safety and justice program at the University of Chicago’s research organization NORC, said attrition among potential gunmen could be one contributing factor. He also cited the widespread, post-pandemic return of services that often serve as de facto deterrents to crime, such as in-person schooling, after-school or weekend programs, counseling, probation visits, court services, and more.
“There isn’t one answer here,” Roman said. “This is complicated, and we’re going to be figuring this out for a while.”
Until 2024, the city’s largest single-year drop in homicides was in 2013, when 246 people were killed — 25% fewer than the year before/
Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel was a deputy commissioner during the last drastic decline and was among law enforcement leaders who credited target enforcement with helping identify, monitor, and promise consequences for potential shooters.
That initiative, called Focused Deterrence, was criticized by some for being too heavy-handed, and it ultimately fizzled out.
“If you look at the last 20, 30 years here — 560-plus homicides, that’s a lot,” Bethel said. “And so you knew something had to change.”
Robberies with a gun were also down by more than a third in 2024. Residential and commercial burglaries declined, and rapes were down by about 1%.
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