Tens of thousands of people had their lives changed forever by the surge in gun violence that began during the pandemic. Though gun violence has returned to its normal high levels in many places, the long tail of it, the shock and grief, will be felt for years to come. The Trace analyzed 220,000 shootings from the Gun Violence Archive between 2020, when the surge began, and 2024, when many places saw gun violence return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Some 18,126 more people died than would have if gun violence had remained at its 2019 level. About 27 percent of those killings — more than one in four — took place in majority African American neighborhoods in large cities, though such areas represent just 7 percent of all neighborhoods. The burden of the unprecedented increases in homicides landed hardest on the places that were already struggling with a disproportionate share of shootings and deaths.
During the surge, shooting deaths increased in nearly every type of neighborhood, including remote rural areas and leafy suburbs, across all races and ethnicities. The lion’s share of deaths were found in large cities. Though African American neighborhoods experienced the most disproportionate share of deaths, both Hispanic neighborhoods and neighborhoods where people of color combined are the majority also experienced more than their share. Some 42 percent of all neighborhoods are majority white and in cities, but just 26 percent of excess deaths took place there. George Mohler, chairperson of the computer science department at Boston College, said, “It’s a well-known observation that crime concentrates [within] American cities. There is a significant inequality in terms of risk of being a victim of gun violence,” even for people who live in the same city. In 2022, Mohler and his co-authors published a study showing that during the first two years of the surge in Philadelphia, New York, and Los Angeles, the increased gun violence was concentrated in groups of blocks where shootings had already been unusually prevalent. “Gun violence didn’t just move to new areas,” he said, the historic increase was “concentrated in the areas that had a history over the last several decades.”