Police clearance rates in murder cases were historically low in 2022. Clearance rates were low nationally in 2022. Rates reported by the FBI were the lowest ever pretty much across the board with a sharp decline being evident post-COVID, writes crime analyst Jeff Asher on Substack. The full numbers for 2023’s clearance rates won’t be released until October. Based on data from states that already have published them, murder clearance rates are still below where they were 15 years ago, but they appear to have roughly returned to (or slightly below) 2019 levels in 2023. Asher found 23 states that have published data on murder clearance rates for both 2022 and 2023. All told, murder clearance rates were 4 percent higher in 2023 than in this same sample of states in 2022.
Clearance rates rose relative to 2021 in 2022 though they were still very low by historical standards. The new sample does not perfectly predict the national murder clearance rate, but it does portend a good sized increase in 2023, Asher says. Murder clearance rates in the 23- state sample have been higher than the national estimated murder clearance rate in each of the last 16 years by an average of 3.2 percent. Still, a sizable increase in the national murder clearance rate from 2022 to 2023 appears to be in store, which should bring it roughly in line with where things stood in 2019 and well above where they were from 2020 to 2022.
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