June was the 26th straight month with fewer murders compared with the same month of the previous year, reports crime analyst Jeff Asher's new Real-Time Crime Index. Murder was down more than 29 percent through June 2024 compared to the sample through June 2021. The index is a collection of monthly crime data from over 300 agencies representing more than 75 million people nationwide. The trend is likely to be reflected in FBI quarterly data in a few weeks. A decline of this magnitude would represent by far the largest one-year decline ever recorded, with the previous record being a 9 percent decline in 1996. The murder decline — if it persists through the end of the year — would place 2024’s murder rate roughly at or below where it was in 2019.
Overall violent crime was down 5 percent this year through midyear after dropping about half as much last year. Violent crime rose in 2020 and 2021 nationally, but it was relatively minor overall because murder makes up a tiny fraction of violent crimes. Property crime was roughly even last year but it is falling a fair amount this year, Asher says. Both reported burglary and theft fell last year in the new sample, but property crime was basically even because auto thefts were up an astounding 26 percent. Auto theft rose an astonishing 71 percent nationally between 2019 and 2023 in the sample, so the 17 percent decline so far in 2024 is nice but doesn’t erase four years of gains.
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