The FBI released its annual Crime in the United States estimates for 2023 this week showing an 11.6 percent decline in murder, a 3 decline in violent crime, and a 2.4 decline in property crime nationally last year. The murder decline is the largest one-year decline ever recorded, besting a 9.1 percent decline in 1996, writes crime analyst Jeff Asher. The FBI’s 2023 report is based on reporting from 94.3 percent of the US population. The 2023 murder decline combined with a large decline being seen so far in 2024 shows murder is falling faster than ever before recorded in the United States. The 3 percent decline in reported violent crime puts the national violent crime rate (363.8 per 100k) alongside 2014 (363.6 per 100k) as the lowest level of reported violent crime since the early 1970s.
There were more than 2,500 fewer murders in 2023 compared to 2022, also the largest decline ever recorded (data back to 1960). The estimated murder rate of 5.7 per 100,000 in 2023 represents a 16.2 decline from 2020 with the murder rate up 9.6 percent relative to 2019’s estimate (though it’s falling fast again in 2024). The big decline in murder certainly is no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. There were more than 2,500 fewer murder victims in 2023 compared to 2022 which is by far the largest one-year decline ever recorded. Previously, the largest one-year decline in murder victims was 1,961 in 1996. Taking the 2023 decline alongside the even bigger decline we are seeing so far in 2024 puts the US murder rate at or very possibly below pre-COVID levels in the span of 3 years. Murder declined nationally and it declined substantially in cities like New Orleans, New York, Los Angeles, and many more in 2023. It is an astounding feat that deserves to be studied for decades to come. At the same time, 19,000 murders is still 19,000 tragedies too many. Murder declined nationally but there were still cities like Washington DC, Greensboro and Memphis that saw large increases in murder.
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