Reports of homicide and most other violent crimes have dropped to or below levels seen before the COVID pandemic and protests of George Floyd's death, finds an analysis of crime trends in 39 cities by the think tank Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).
Examining patterns for 12 crime types in cities that have consistently published data over six years, the study found that levels of 11 of those offenses--all but shoplifting--were lower in the first six months of this year compared to the first half of 2023.
The number of homicides in the 29 cities providing data for that crime was 13% lower, representing 319 fewer homicides in those cities. Nineteen of the 29 cities recorded a homicide decrease during the first half of the year, ranging from a drop of 71% in Chandler, Ariz., to an 8% decline in Austin.
Nine cities experienced increases, ranging from 5% in St. Louis to 26% in Buffalo.
A separate report from crime analyst Jeff Asher, based on data from 272 cities, found a homicide decrease so far this year of 17 percent, higher than the CCJ study released on Thursday.
Motor vehicle thefts, which had risen since mid=2020, reversed course during the first six months of this year, falling to levels 18% lower than in the first half of 2023.
Residential burglaries (-14%), nonresidential burglaries (-10%), larcenies (-6%), and drug offenses (-2%) all decreased.
Shoplifting, a crime that has received extensive attention from the news media and policymakers, increased by 24% in 23 study cities during the first six months of 2024. The council said it was unclear how much of the change may reflect an actual rise in incidents or rather increased reporting to law enforcement.
“Especially with homicide, the continuing downward trends we’re seeing so far this year are heartening, as every killing prevented is a life saved,” said CCJ 's Ernesto Lopez. “But crime is heavily influenced by local
factors, and despite the national trends, many U.S. cities continue to face intolerably high
levels of violence.”
The study found 2% fewer homicides during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019, 15% fewer robberies, 8% fewer domestic violence incidents, and 0.2% fewer aggravated assaults.
Gun assaults were 1% higher during the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2019, while carjacking, a crime that is relatively uncommon that began to spike shortly after the onset of the pandemic, was 68% higher.
Alex Piquero, former director of the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, noted that only a handful of cities report complete carjacking data, so the reported trend for that crime is not definitive.
Property crime trends have been more mixed over five years. There were fewer residential burglaries (-39%) and larcenies (-9%), but more nonresidential burglaries (+14%) and more reported shoplifting incidents (+10%) in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2019.
Motor vehicle thefts more than doubled (+66%). Drug offenses were 28% lower.
Janet Lauritsen, a criminologist at the University of Missouri St. Louis, cautioned that because the new report was compiled from a limited number of cities, the public should be wary of assuming that it reflects national trends accurately.
Lauritsen noted that there is considerable variation of crime levels across different neighborhoods in a metropolitan area. She also pointed out that the National Crime Victimization Survey, which bases its annual report on interviews with Americans on whether they have been victims of crime, sometimes reports data that differs from the number of crimes reported to police departments.
CCJ president Adam Gelb said, “It’s wonderful to see the overall trends bend back in the right direction, but the progress is very uneven and being driven by large drops in a handful of high-homicide cities. Policymakers and community leaders can accelerate the momentum by doubling down on crime-prevention strategies that are backed by evidence and are delivering measurable results.”
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