The number of murders across the U.S. declined sharply for much of 2024, continuing a downward trend, according to data collected by the FBI, cities and independent researchers. Murders spiked during the pandemic, and crime became a central focus of President-elect Trump’s campaign message. Polls show Americans still see it as a major problem. High-profile homicides, including the recent killing of a homeless woman who was set on fire in a New York subway, may fan concerns, reports the New York Times. Still, in 2023, the number of murders fell at the steepest rate ever recorded. That trend may be continuing, according to data from a mix of sources covering most or part of 2024. In some major cities, the numbers are at or below what they were before the pandemic. Through October, data collected by the Real-Time Crime Index, based on reports from hundreds of law enforcement agencies, showed a nearly 16 percent decline in murders from 2023. FBI preliminary data for the first half of the year showed an even steeper decline.
Even with the data limitations, experts said the trend of declining murders nationally was clear. Several major cities saw striking reversals in the number of murders over the last two years. Detroit, which last year recorded the lowest number of homicides in 57 years, is on track to see even fewer this year. In San Francisco, homicides have fallen by a third. Other crime categories also declined. Car thefts, which had risen steadily over the last few years, have fallen by about 20 percent this year, according to the Real-Time Crime Index. Murders are still above their prepandemic levels in some cities, including in New York City and Washington, D.C. New York still has seen a roughly 7 percent drop in murders and shootings this year; reported incidents of rape, however, surged 20 percent from around 1,400 last year to 1,685. There have been upticks in some citiesl. Charlotte, N.C., and Long Beach, Calif., saw an increase in violent crime in the first three quarters of this year. In nearly two dozen cities, shoplifting appeared to be on the rise, according to the think tank Council on Criminal Justice. Data collected by independent researchers — including the Real-Time Crime Index, Council on Criminal Justice and Major Cities Chiefs Association — also point to a similar or even sharper decline in murders this year as compared with 2023.
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