Experts offer a few possible explanations for why U.S. gun homicides have abated: The end of the pandemic reestablished a sense of normalcy. The turmoil over the role of police after the murder of George Floyd also eased. The drop is also partly the result of carefully coordinated efforts by local officials, community leaders, and law enforcement, backed in many cases by an infusion of cash from the federal government, Vox reports.. As leaders formulate violence reduction strategies, many are doing it with the help of a 2019 book, Bleeding Out by Thomas Abt. It argues that urban gun violence, rather than being an immovable fact of life, can be effectively reduced using specific, evidence-based strategies. Abt maintains that cities can save lives right away, without overhauling their budgets or waiting for long-term investments that might take decades.
While it’s still early, the book’s lessons are having a real-world impact.
Abt points to evidence that most of this violence is highly concentrated among a small number of people, and in a small number of places. In 2015, he notes, more than a quarter of the nation’s gun homicides happened in only 1,200 neighborhoods, containing just 1.5 percent of the population. The challenge of reducing gun violence is to reach the people and the places at the center of the crisis, and find ways to disrupt the patterns that perpetuate it. Abt lays out three guiding principles: focus, balance, and fairness. The ideas work, he argues, if you intensely focus on the most at-risk people and places, balance the work of law enforcement with prevention and community intervention, and enforce the law fairly. “Punishment by itself has not worked,” Abt writes. “Neither has prevention.” Abt cites research suggesting that direct outreach from “credible messengers” and other community workers can help prevent this violence. He narrows in on the promising results that cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has shown in communities where gun violence is in part driven by retaliation between rival networks or gangs. Law enforcement should inform those most at risk of committing violence that they will be prosecuted if they shoot someone — but also offer them resources to help if they decide not to. In 2022, Abt founded the Violence Reduction Center at the University of Maryland, to assist cities. The center is partnering with three cities: Knoxville, Tenn., Boston and St. Louis.
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