Donald Trump routinely raises the issue of crime on the campaign trail, saying crime rates are “through the roof” and that cities like Philadelphia are “ravaged by bloodshed.”
Philadelphia, like many other cities, endured a sharp spike in homicides during the pandemic. Many of those same places are seeing a sharp drop, including in swing states. In Arizona, the decline in violent crime is even steeper than the national average.
Falling crime does not necessarily translate into voter comfort, said political scientist Paul Sracic of Youngstown, Oh., State University, the New York Times reports.
“When we talk about crime, in some ways it’s similar to how we talk about economics in that perception matters,” he said, adding, “Perception is as important as reality — and maybe more important than reality to voters.”
Republicans have tied crime to immigration, with ad connecting the wave of migrants at the border with fentanyl overdoses, murder and rape. (Research shows that immigrants commit crime at a much lower rate than native-born Americans do.)
Democrats are talking more about crime as well, said Insha Rahman of Vera Action, which works to reduce incarceration. While Republicans still spend more on campaign ads about crime, they no longer spend three or four times more, she said.
Some Democratic candidates have echoed Republicans’ tough-on-crime talking points, but others have focused on a different approach to public safety, including popular measures such as increasing mental health and drug treatment, as does an ad by Kamala Harris’s campaign.
Republican candidates generally have an advantage over Democrats when voters are asked who would better handle crime. Aafter the presidential debate in September, when Harris emphasized her experience as a prosecutor, this perception gap narrowed to within one point, said one national poll.
Here is how crime looks in battleground states, using data from AH Datalytics’ Real-Time Crime Index.
Arizona: Violent crime reached almost its highest monthly total in October 2020 and remained high through summer 2022. Murders are down 32 percent this year over the same period last year. Car thefts are down 14 percent. Overall violent crime is flat and overall property crime is down 7 percent this year. Voter attention is focused on other issues like education, immigration and abortion.
Georgia: Violent crime peaked in October 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic, and this year, it has dropped below prepandemic levels. Murders are down 3 percent this year over the same period last year. Car thefts are down 14 percent after a sharp rise in 2023. Overall violent crime is down 11 percent. Voters appear far more preoccupied with the economy, said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
Michigan: Violent crime rose in June 2020, but it was still lower than a previous spike in July 2019, before the pandemic. Murders are down 18 percent this year over the same period last year. Car thefts are down 17 percent. Overall violent crime is down 5 percent. Trump visited Livingston County, west of Detroit, and said, "The people of Michigan and the rest of the country can’t take another four years of weak, soft-on-crime leadership." In Detroit, however, the city’s downtown has been remade and neighborhoods have attracted new investments. Murders dropped last year to the lowest level in decades.
Nevada: Post-pandemic violent crime peaked in July 2020, but was still lower than when it spiked in May 2018 and May 2019. Murders are down 11 percent this year over the same period last year. Car thefts are down 29 percent. This year, overall violent crime is down 8 percent and overall property crime is down 12 percent over the same period last year.