The national decrease in murder totals is "potentially historically large," says crime data analyst Jeff Asher. Preliminary 2023 FBI data “paint the picture" of a big decrease in overall crime, he says. That’s not the picture Donald Trump and his supporters paint on the campaign trail, with voters likely to hear plenty more in the coming months that attempts to cast President Biden as weak on crime. A House Judiciary Committee hearing scheduled for Friday in Philadelphia is expected to focus on the topic, picking up on a theme the GOP-led panel covered during sessions last year in New York and Chicago. Trump’s crime rhetoric has been escalating as he faces his own criminal jeopardy, with the former president arguing that prosecutors are ignoring the real crime problem in America to pursue a political “witch hunt” against him, reports USA Today.
Yet even as the data contradict Trump’s description of a nation in the grip of a crime wave, many Americans are inclined to agree with him, polls show, and crime could be a key issue this election cycle. Trump is making public safety concerns, particularly crimes committed by undocumented immigrants, a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign. His message is targeted at swing voters who might have qualms about Trump on issues such as abortion but could find a tough-on-crime pitch appealing. "The suburban housewives actually like Donald Trump. You know why? Because I'm the one who's gonna keep them safe,” Trump says. Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly said USA Today was "trying to gaslight Americans into believing that their lived experiences are wrong" and noted "families are rightfully concerned" about crime. Republicans ran on tackling crime during the 2022 midterm election cycle, and they had data to back up their claims that it was a growing problem. The FBI reported that violent crimes increased 5.6% in 2020 and remained at that elevated level in 2021, dipping by just 1%. Crime was still well below levels seen a few decades ago, said Jeffrey Butts of the John Jay College of Criminal Justice Research and Evaluation Center. “When COVID hit we saw this spike, so from 2020 to 2022 it was bad but… it still came nowhere near where we were in the 1990s,” Butts said. Researchers believe the crime increase was a blip caused by pandemic disruptions.
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